← Back to Home

Chest Odds

Every probability SupaSnake uses to fill a Chest, in full.

What you cannot buy

Chests are earned by playing and are never sold. There are no keys, no paid openings, and nothing on this page can be improved with money.

Energy is not an odds dial either. Committing more Energy to a run multiplies the DNA that run pays out; it does not change a single number below. The functions that produce these tables do not accept a commitment, a charge state, or an amount as input, so neutrality is a property of the code rather than a promise about it.

How a Pursuit target arrives

When you are pursuing a specific item, each qualifying run is one attempt. The chance rises with every attempt that misses, and attempt 10 is a guarantee — if it has not arrived by then, it arrives then.

Pursuit arrival probability by qualified attempt
AttemptChance on this attemptChance by this attempt
14%4%
25%8.8%
36.5%14.73%
48%21.55%
510%29.39%
613%38.57%
717.5%49.32%
824%61.49%
936%75.35%
10100%guaranteed100%

“Chance by this attempt” is cumulative from attempt one. It is computed from the same weights the game resolves with, not written down separately.

The draw leans toward what you do not have

When a Chest is choosing between candidates, an item you do not own is weighted more heavily than one you already have — and the lean gets stronger the longer you go without something new. Both weights are below. Neither is ever zero, so nothing is ever locked out.

Draw weight by consecutive results that were not new
After this many non-new resultsWeight — already ownedWeight — not owned
012
314

If you already own everything a Chest could legally give you, this rule stops doing anything at all — there is no unowned candidate for it to favour. That is stated rather than left implicit, because “the rule no longer applies to you” is part of the disclosure.

Depth Chests

A Depth Chest draws one result from a published pool, and which pool depends on the gate you reached. Because a pool excludes things you cannot legally receive right now — the target you are already pursuing, and anything already queued for you — its shares are relative to your own eligible pool rather than to a fixed table, and each gate publishes its own pool with its own version stamp on the run record. A single number here would be a fixed table pretending to be your table.

Which tables these are

These identities let a specific run be checked against the exact tables that were in force when it settled. Rewording this page is deliberately not the same event as changing the odds, so the wording and the weights carry separate versions.

Arrival weights
midpoint-v1
Draw lean
gear-pursuit-tilt-v1
This page
gear-disclosure-v1
Chest Odds | SupaSnake — SupaSnake